The challenge of renewable integration and the role of advanced forecasting

In the current decarbonization landscape, it is critically important to integrate renewable generation using the most accurate data and at the highest possible frequency in order to avoid system imbalances that could lead to restrictions on energy exports. In this context, the use of advanced technological applications for generation forecasting becomes a key factor in achieving the highest levels of efficiency in asset management.

According to REE, 2023 closed with record levels of renewable generation in Spain, contributing more than 50% of the electricity mix, with particularly significant figures in wind and solar photovoltaic technologies. Effectively integrating all this renewable generation into the system is no easy task. Unlike traditional fossil-based (coal, oil, and natural gas) and nuclear energy sources, renewable production presents unique characteristics—such as dispersion, variability, and meteorological uncertainty—that make it more complex to manage.

GNARUM explains that, in order for the different market participants to optimize the management of their plants, it is essential to have advanced technological tools that help accurately and systematically forecast generation at each asset.

In this regard, “The FORECAST platform offers energy producers and traders a generation forecasting service based on machine learning techniques, delivering forecasts with the highest levels of accuracy for each plant. This is achieved by combining the continuous analysis and evolution of multiple specialized algorithms with the most advanced international meteorological models (NWP), as well as with the production observations from the generation assets themselves,” explains Javier Jiménez Cobo, CIO of Gnarum.

“Furthermore, thanks to our technological capabilities and a dedicated team of specialists focused on the continuous improvement of algorithms and data sources, the forecasting solution developed by Gnarum is able to deliver production forecasts tailored to the specific conditions of each asset anywhere in the world.”

Enfoque Meter To Market

Aware of the importance that continuity in plant-level observations has on the accuracy of forecasting models—and, by extension, on energy trading operations—GNARUM has implemented the Meter-to-Market (M2M) paradigm. This approach enables end-to-end integration of FORECAST with each generation plant on one side, and with the market on the other, through the TRADE market operations platform.

“This paradigm enables market operators not only to access the most accurate forecasts possible in each case, but also to operate their energy buying and selling activities in the market in a precise and timely manner, thereby minimizing the imbalance costs arising from their operations. Our goal is to enhance the efficiency of each client’s portfolio management by providing them with the necessary tools to achieve this,” explains Javier Jiménez Cobo.

According to the latest analyses carried out, the forecasts generated by the FORECAST system rank among the best in class for photovoltaic and wind power generation forecasting. “Our systems continuously analyze the accuracy of multiple multi-level algorithms in order to determine and consistently deliver the best forecasting option for each of our clients’ assets.”

About Gnarum

Gnarum was founded in 2012 with the aim of developing software services that support and enhance energy management for the different players in the electricity market, with a particular focus on the renewable energy ecosystem. Specifically, our Forecasting, Trading, and Business Intelligence solutions are designed to cover the entire operational cycle for energy producers, utilities, and traders. “For more than 10 years, we have been observing and analyzing the electricity market from every angle. This has enabled us to develop a set of solutions tailored to the needs of each type of client,” explains Javier Jiménez Cobo.

GNARUM’s goal is to simplify the management of renewable assets and to enhance their performance across the various energy markets. Today, the Madrid-based company has a diversified client portfolio spanning Europe, South Africa, and South America.